FORUM on Corrections Research

Dynamic and behavioural antecedents to recidivism: A retrospective analysis (R-17, 1991)

This study identifies dynamic antecedents of recidivism that can be measured in the postrelease period. Large numbers of measures were examined simultaneously for predictive value. These measures can be divided into several classes: historical (e.g., offence history), individual differences (e.g., anger proneness, intelligence, coping ability), general postrelease (e.g., self-ratings of mood in the time before the reoffence or during a specific period of successful supervision) and specific postrelease (e.g., the particular events that preceded a specific arrest). The initial data analysis task was to reduce the number of variables within a given predictor domain. Measures that had intractable problems (e.g., missing data, extremely skewed distributions, no real variance) were eliminated. The remainder of the variables were examined for redundancy; highly intercorrelated variables were combined or eliminated.

The analyses are descriptive in nature. The researchers compare offenders who were convicted of robbery to offenders convicted of serious assault using key variables.

One of the findings of this study suggests that the separation of recidivists into violent predator and other inmate groups should permit more accurate delineation of the relationship of emotional and environmental precipitants to criminal acts in both types of offenders. These results will have direct implications for the development and supervision of more effective programs of treatment. Similarly, the separation of "other" offenders into several groups that will differ according to precipitants and motivations, as some of the results presented imply, may lead to some very useful guidelines for supervision.