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Medium-Term Federal Offender Population Forecast: 2003 to 2007
This report is also available in French. Ce rapport est également disponible en français. Veuillez vous adresser à la direction de la recherche, Service Correctionnel du Canada, 340 avenue Laurier ouest, Ottawa (Ontario) K1A 0P9. Should additional copies be required they can be obtained from the Research Branch, Correctional Service of Canada, 340 Laurier Ave., West, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0P9.
2003 to 2007
Mark Nafekh
Roger Boe
Research Branch
Correctional Service of Canada
March, 2003
The authors wish to thank Colette Cousineau for her expertise in ensuring the data in the report are accurate and reliable.
Executive SummaryThis report uses standard time-series modelling techniques to develop medium-term (5 year) offender population projections for purposes of the National Capital, Accommodation, and Operational Plan (NCAOP). Projections are provided for men and women incarcerated and under community supervision, by Region, and from these are derived National offender population totals. For federally sentenced men, projections for the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal offender populations are completed separately, then combined to derive the total projected male population.
Definitions of the federal offender populations, both incarcerated and in the community, have been modified from earlier editions of this series of reports. The new definitions align with those used by Correctional Service of Canada's (CSC's) Strategic and Operational Planning Branch. All projections are provided on a "calendar year" rather than the "fiscal year" basis traditionally used (i.e., January 1 to December 31, rather than April 1 to March 31) for purposes of the NCAOP.
The population of incarcerated men has shown a steady decline since December 1995, falling from 13,906 to 12,896 inmates by December 2002. This represents a decrease of 1,010 (or –7.3%) inmates. However, analyses revealed that this decrease is offset by the increase in the male Aboriginal population for the same time period. Specifically, the male Aboriginal inmate population has been increasing over the same time period (by 474 inmates, or 25.5 %), while the male non-Aboriginal offender population has been decreasing (by 1,484 inmates or 12.3%).
The population of men under community supervision peaked in 1999, and has since been on the decline. Similar to the male incarcerated population, the trend is offset by the increase in the Aboriginal offender population under community supervision. There has been a decrease of 925 (or -12.7%) non-Aboriginal offenders in the community since 1995, while there has been an increase of 207 (or 30.5%) Aboriginal offenders over the same time period.
Statistical forecasting procedures resulted in the following projections for the federally sentenced male offender population:
The population of incarcerated women has grown rapidly over the past five years, increasing since December 1997 from 327 to 365 inmates by December 2002. This represents a gain of 11.6% (38 women inmates). Similarly, the population of women under community supervision has increased during this period, rising from 393 to 443 women offenders (an increase of 50 offenders or 12.7%). Forecasting techniques project the following for the federally sentenced women offender population:
Table of Contents
A. A Return to Favourable Social Trends
B.Countervailing Trends
A.Overview
1.Forecasting and population profiling tools
2.Overview of historical data issues
B.The Historical Inmate Series
1.Incarcerated men
2.Incarcerated women
C.The Time-Series for Community Supervision
III.RESULTS : Medium-Term NCAOP Forecasts
A.National Summary
1.Historical trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Summary results
B.Atlantic Region
1.Historical data trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Results
C.Quebec Region
1.Historical data trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Results
D.Ontario Region
1.Historical data trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Results
E.Prairie Region
1.Historical data trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Results
F.Pacific Region
1.Historical data trends
2.Projections, 2003-2007
3.Results
Appendix I: projected Average growth rates
INTRODUCTION-
Prior to 2001, the main social and demographic indicators (e.g., crime, unemployment, etc.) were trending in favourable directions. The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) and the Provincial/Territorial prison systems were thus facing little pressure in terms of population growth. However, in 2001, these trends diverged from a favourable direction with Canada's near-recession. The economy regained strength in 2002 and employment continues to grow in 2003, raising confidence in the return of social trends that reflect the less rapid growth in the male offender population (between 1995 and 2001).
CSC's population of incarcerated men increased significantly following the on-set of the recessions of 1982 and 1991. In 2001, the economy slowed to a lesser degree during the 'near-recession'. Thus, a slighter impact on the incarcerated male population would be expected. During the economic slow-down of 2001, unemployment rates rose and Statistics Canada reported a 1% rise in crime rates, the first increase since 1991. Similar to previous recessions, the 2002 incarcerated federal offender population increased more than that of the previous two years, 1.1 % versus an average 0.1% (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: The Federally Incarcerated Population 
Since 2001, Canada has fared well in terms of growth in real Gross Domestic Product and job creation. Demographic trends point towards a continuation of population aging, along with an overall modest growth in the total population. Currently, it is too early to determine whether favourable trends will combine to exert a positive downward force on Canada’s crime and incarceration rates. Forecasts generated in this report predict stability in CSC's total male offender population and increases for the women offender population.
Forecasts produced by this report reveal that the incarceration rate of male Aboriginal offenders will continue to offset trends in CSC's total male offender population. Specifically, from 2003 to 2007, the male non-Aboriginal offender population is predicted to decrease by an average of 69 offenders per year. In contrast, the male Aboriginal population is predicted to grow by an average of 140 offenders per year, thus offsetting the decrease enough to influence the direction of the trend to an average increase of 71 male offenders per year.
Demographic changes in the Canadian male Aboriginal population support past, current, and projected trends of the federal offender population. Aboriginal people's share of Canada's total population is on the rise (4.4% in 2001 compared to 3.8% in 1996). Specifically, between-census growth rates (from 1996 to 2001) were 19.8% for Aboriginal peoples compared to only 4% for Canada's total population. Assuming that incarceration rates remain constant, a proportional increase would be expected in the Aboriginal male offender population. The Aboriginal population is also much younger than that of Canada's non-Aboriginal population (a median 24.7 years versus 37.7). The "younger" age group of the Canadian male population is considered to be at higher risk of contact with the criminal justice system, further impacting the likelihood of increases in the male Aboriginal incarceration rate. Conversely, the non-Aboriginal population of Canada is ageing, the pool of younger "higher risk" candidates is decreasing, and the population growth rate has decelerated. Thus, the federal non-Aboriginal offender population could be expected to possibly decrease over time.
Although the trend in incarceration rates for Aboriginal peoples could be expected to increase, the level of incarceration is well above that of the non-Aboriginal population. Adult Aboriginal peoples represent approximately 3% of the Canadian population, versus 16% of the federal offender population. This over representation of Aboriginal people in the federal criminal justice system has been a growing concern of correctional policy makers and practitioners. One of Correctional Service of Canada's corporate objectives is to contribute to the reduction of the incarceration rate of Aboriginal offenders. Thus, efforts in this area, combined with the ageing of the Aboriginal population, will eventually negate the degree to which incarceration rates for this group impact on the total federal offender population.
The forecasts provided in this report use standard time-series modelling techniques to develop medium-term offender population projections for purposes of the National Capital, Accommodation, and Operational Plan (NCAOP). Projections are provided by Region for Aboriginal men and non-Aboriginal men and women who are incarcerated and under community supervision. From these are derived National offender population totals.Note that for the purposes of NCAOP, projections are provided on a "calendar year" rather than the "fiscal year" basis traditionally used (i.e., January 1st to December 31st, rather than April 1st to March 31st).
This section describes the forecasting tools and data series that have been used to develop the medium-term forecasts. "Medium-term" is used to describe a forecasting horizon of 1-5 years, whereas "long-term" describes a forecast horizon of 5-10 years.
Note: For purpose of the NCAOP, the medium-term model refers to a projection horizon of 5-years.Forecasting and population profiling tools
The Research Branch is currently using as its main development and forecasting tool the SAS® ETS forecasting system. This system is an advanced statistical forecasting tool that fits a variety of models to time series data. Note that the forecasts produced by this system are solely dependent on the historical data. The Research Branch also developed a series of long-term multivariate forecasting models that combine social and demographic trends to predict federal inmate populations over a 10-year horizon. Development is currently underway for some of the regions, as each administrative region requires a distinct model. Finally, the Branch has developed the Climate Indicator and Profiling System (CIPS). This system profiles static and dynamic risk factors of the federal offender population over time and is currently being demonstrated for operational use.Overview of historical data issues
The accuracy and reliability of statistical forecasts are affected by the quality of information used to predict trends. In the past, there have been changes in data collecting methods and definitions of the offender inmate and community populations. Thus, maintaining a consistent data series to be used in forecasting has been a challenge to CSC.The Correctional Service of Canada's (CSC's) offender information data underwent several major changes in the early 1990's. The traditional "on-register" and community supervision time-series used both for forecasting and information purposes, were affected by legislative, technological and operational changes (see Boe, 1997). The current Offender Management System (OMS) offender population historical data series, which extends back to 1995, has also experienced significant changes in definitions. Alternative historical series (such as the Inmate Movement System) have an adequate time-series, but they are aggregate data and, as such, they are difficult to parse to reveal profile information.
This report deals with the above challenges by adopting a combination of approaches that reduce the impacts of changes discussed above.
The following sections describe the historical series that have been developed for these forecasts. The only adequate time-series available for forecasting the institutional population uses statistics from the Inmate Movement System (IMS). This system consists of an electronic record of institutional counts (for the institutions housing men and for Prison for Women) dating as far back as January 2, 1979. As of December 2002, there are approximately 1,253 weekly data points for every Region. The incarcerated population, for Operational Planning purposes, includes the "actual in" count as recorded in IMS, plus outside court, hospital and temporary absences, as well as those under exchange of service agreements (ESAs) with the provinces and territories.For accommodation and operational planning purposes, this data series is a good reflection of the federal population of incarcerated men.
Previously, the IMS series was supplemented in order to produce satisfactory time-series projections for the federal population of women inmates in various regions, since the new facilities only opened beginning in 1995 (see Boe, 2002). Since then, two years (104 data points) have been added to this series, making it sufficient to use in a forecasting model.The Time-Series for Community Supervision
Community supervision statistics were supplied by the Performance Management Sector at CSC and derived from the Offender Management System (OMS).The community offender population, as defined for Operational Planning purposes, includes:
This population excludes:
Historical statistics are not available prior to 1993. In January 1993, day paroles ceased to be counted as part of the incarcerated population and became part of the community supervision count. An "old" series covers the period from January 1980 to December 1997. However, some definitional changes were made to this series so that a new series was begun after January 1997. The new series is therefore not consistent with the earlier period.
For the purposes of the NCAOP forecasts, the community supervision counts from both the old and new series were used. To minimize differences when the two series are linked, adjustments were made. Specifically, temporary detainees in federal penitentiaries were excluded from the older series. Monthly rather than annual statistics were used to help provide the forecasts with more data. Finally, similar to techniques used for the incarcerated population, the proportion of women and male Aboriginal offenders in the community was estimated backwards, and then applied to the actual monthly counts.
RESULTS : Medium-Term NCAOP Forecasts
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The historical population of incarcerated men has shown a fairly steady decrease over the past 7 years, falling from 13,906 in December 1995 to 12,896 inmates by December 2002. This represents a decline of 1,010 inmates or
–7.3% over the 7-year period. During this period, the community supervision population peaked in 1999 (N=8,204), and has since decreased to 7,218 offenders (down 986 or 12.0%).
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has fluctuated between 1995 and 2002, peaking in 1999 at 0.64 before decreasing to 0.56 in 2002.
While the population of non-Aboriginal men has been decreasing over time, that of Aboriginal men has been increasing. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 12.3% (N=1,484) whereas, for Aboriginal men, this proportion increased (25.5%, N=474). These trends are also reflected in the male community populations. The population of non-Aboriginal men in the community decreased 12.5% (N=925) and the Aboriginal population increased 30.5% (N=207).
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown a considerable increase since December 1996, rising from 268 to 365 inmates by December 2002. This represents a gain of 97 women inmates (36.2%). The community supervision population has also increased significantly during this period, rising from 351 to 443 offenders, an increase of 92 offenders or nearly 26%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders decreased during the period from 1.31 to 1.21. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1995.
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The historical population of incarcerated men reveals a period of steady decrease from 1995 to 2001, followed by a relatively stable period of little change in 2001 and 2002. Overall, the population has fallen from 1,417 inmates in December 1995 to 1,215 inmates in December 2002. This represents a decline of 202 inmates or 14.3% over the 7-year period. During this period, the community supervision population increased from 694 to 772 offenders (an increase of 78 offenders or 11.2%).
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has fluctuated between 1995 and 2002, peaking in 1999 at 0.75 before decreasing to 0.64 in 2002.
While the population of non-Aboriginal men has been either steady or decreasing over time, that of Aboriginal men has been increasing. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 16.3% (N=221) whereas, for Aboriginal men, this proportion increased (29.2%, N=19). Both non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal male community populations increased in this time period (9.6% and 59.1% respectively).
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown a considerable increase since December 1996, rising from 28 to 47 inmates by December 2002. This represents a gain of 19 women inmates (67.9%). The community supervision population has also increased significantly during this period, rising from 23 to 34 offenders, an increase of 11 offenders or 47.8%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders decreased during the period from 0.82 to 0.72. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1995.
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The historical population of incarcerated men reveals a period of steady decrease from 1995 to 2001, followed by a relatively stable period of little change in 2001 and 2002. Overall, the population has fallen from 3,827 inmates in December 1995 to 3,286 inmates in December 2002. This represents a decline of 541 inmates or 14.1% over the 7-year period. During this period, the community supervision population decreased from 2,348 to 1,932 offenders (a decrease of 416 offenders or 17.7%).
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has fluctuated between 1995 and 2002, peaking in 1998 at 0.69 before decreasing to 0.59 in 2002.
While the population of non-Aboriginal men has been either steady or decreasing over time, that of Aboriginal men has been increasing. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 18.7% (N=703) whereas, for Aboriginal men, this proportion increased (257.4%, N=162). These trends are also reflected in the male community populations. The population of non-Aboriginal men in the community decreased 18.7% (N=435) and the Aboriginal population increased 65.5% (N=19).
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown a slight increase since December 1997, rising from 67 to 69 inmates by December 2002 (3.0%). In contrast, the community supervision population has decreased during this period, falling from 93 to 76 offenders, a decrease of 17 offenders or 18.3%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders decreased during the period from 1.4 to 1.1. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1997.
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The historical population of incarcerated men reveals a period of steady decrease from 1995 to 2001, followed by a relatively stable period of little change in 2001 and 2002. Overall, the population has fallen from 3,608 inmates in December 1995 to 3,407 inmates in December 2002. This represents a decline of 201 inmates or 5.6% over the 7-year period. During this period, the community supervision population decreased from 2,298 to 1,786 offenders (a decrease of 512 offenders or 22.3%).
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has fluctuated between 1995 and 2002, peaking in 1998 at 0.65 before decreasing to 0.52 in 2002.
While the population of non-Aboriginal men has been either steady or decreasing over time, that of Aboriginal men has been increasing. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 10.5% (N=361) whereas, for Aboriginal men, this proportion increased (100.0%, N=160). These trends are also reflected in the male community populations. The population of non-Aboriginal men in the community decreased 23.9% (N=531) and the Aboriginal population increased 26.4% (N=19).
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown a considerable decrease since December 1995, falling from 148 to 79 inmates by December 2002 (-46.6%). The opening of the regional women's facilities over this time period is a likely contributing factor to this trend. In contrast, the community supervision population has increased during this period, rising from 138 to 161 offenders, an increase of 23 offenders or 16.7%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders decreased during the period from 1.4 to 1.1. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1997.
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The historical population of incarcerated men reveals a period of steady decrease from 1995 to 2001, followed by an increase that peaked in June 2002 before returning to levels more consistent with the historical trend. Overall, the population has fallen from 3,128 inmates in December 1995 to 3,073 inmates in December 2002. This represents a decline of 55 inmates or 1.8% over the 7-year period. During this period, the community supervision population increased from 1,551 to 1,802 offenders (an increase of 251 offenders or 16.2%).
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has been increasing since 1995, rising from 0.50 to 0.65 in 2000 before decreasing to 0.59 in 2002.
The inmate population of non-Aboriginal men has been either steady or decreasing over time. Similarly, the population of Aboriginal men has been decreasing until recent. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 5.0% (N=93). For Aboriginal men, this proportion decreased up until 2001 (-3.0%, N=38). Yet, from 2001 to 2002, there was a 6.2% increase (N=76).
The population of non-Aboriginal men in the community increased up until the end of 1999, but has since been on the decline. Similarly, for Aboriginal men, the increase has occurred up to 2000 before decreasing.
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown a steady increase since December 1995, rising from 34 to 127 inmates by December 2002 (273.5%). The opening of the region's women's facility over this time period is a likely contributing factor to this trend. The community supervision population has also increased during this period, rising from 52 to 127 offenders, an increase of 75 offenders or 144.2%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders decreased during the period from 1.53 to 1.06. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1995.
- The population of incarcerated men is projected to increase slightly over the horizon of this forecast, rising from 3,073 inmates in December 2002 to 3,090 inmates by December 2007 (17 inmates or 0.6%). While the number of non-Aboriginal men is projected to decrease by 3.0% (N=54), that of Aboriginal men is projected to increase by 5.5%. (N=71)
- The population of men under community supervision is projected to increase, rising from 1,802 offenders in December 2002 to 1,891 offenders by December 2007 (an increase of 89 offenders or 4.9%). The number of non-Aboriginal men is projected to increase by only 0.3% (N=4), while Aboriginal offenders under community supervision are projected to increase 15.0% (N=85).
- The population of incarcerated women is projected to increase from 127 inmates in December 2002 to 177 by December 2007 (an increase of 39.4%).
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The population of incarcerated men remained steady between 1995 and 2002, decreasing slightly overall (by 11 inmates or 0.6%). Similarly, the community supervision population remained steady during this period, fluctuating between 900 and 1,050 offenders.
The ratio of the population of men in the community to male inmates has fluctuated between 1995 and 2002, peaking in 1998 at 0.58 before decreasing to 0.48 in 2002.
While the population of non-Aboriginal men has been either steady or decreasing over time, that of Aboriginal men has been slightly increasing. Between 1995 and 2002, the proportion of incarcerated non-Aboriginal men decreased by 6.6% (N=106) whereas, for Aboriginal men, this proportion increased (30.3%, N=95). These trends are also reflected in the male community populations. The population of non-Aboriginal men in the community decreased 17.0% (N=160) and the Aboriginal population increased 39.4% (N=41).
The size of the population of incarcerated women has shown an increase since December 1996, rising from 34 to 43 inmates by December 2002 (26.5%). The community supervision population has also increased during this period, rising from 33 to 45 offenders, an increase of 12 offenders or 36.4%.
The ratio of the community to the custodial population for women offenders fluctuated during the period, rising from 0.97 in 1996 to 1.05 in 2002. Historically, in comparison to men, the ratio has been significantly higher for women since 1996.
- The population of incarcerated men is projected to increase over the horizon of this forecast, rising from 1,915 inmates in December 2002 to 1,985 inmates by December 2007 (70 inmates or 3.7%). The number of non-Aboriginal men is projected to increase by 0.6%, as is that of Aboriginal men (14.9%).
- The population of men under community supervision is projected to increase, rising from 926 offenders in December 2002 to 932 offenders by December 2007 (an increase of 6 offenders or 0.6%). The number of non-Aboriginal men is projected to decrease by 1.5% (N=12), while Aboriginal offenders under community supervision are projected to increase 12.4% (N=18).
- The population of incarcerated women is projected to increase from 43 inmates in December 2002 to 50 inmates by December 2007 (up 7 inmates or 16.3%).
- The women’s community supervision population is projected to increase from 45 offenders in December 2002 to 54 offenders in December 2007 (up 9 offenders or 20.0%).
Boe, R. (2001) A Medium-Term Federal Offender Population Forecast: 2001 to 2004. Report R-100. (Ottawa, ON: Correctional Service of Canada)
Boe, R. (1997) Review of the Offender Population Forecast: Models, Data and Requirements - with Provisional Forecasts for 1998 to 2007. Report R-59. (Ottawa, ON: Correctional Service of Canada)
Juristat - Crime Statistics in Canada, 2001. The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, Statistics Canada. Vol. 22 No. 6.2001 Census: analysis series. Aboriginal peoples of Canada: A demographic profile. (2003) Statistics Canada. Catalogue No. 96F0030XIE200010072001 Census: analysis series. A profile of the Canadian population: where we live. (2003) Statistics Canada. Catalogue No. 96F0030XIE010012001
Appendix I: projected Average growth rates
