Canadian Federal Community Supervision Population: Actual and Projected 2000 to 2022
Research Highlights: A federal community supervision population forecasting exercise indicates continued growth.
Research in Brief- PDF
Why we did this study
Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) updated its community supervision forecasts in 2017 with a view to bring its former projections in line with historical population trends and recent increases. A previously developed model was applied to produce new population projections from the end of March 2017 to the year 2022. The following provides a status report on the population projection exercise that was undertaken for community supervision in May 2017.
What we did
A forecasting database of weekly snapshots of community supervision counts from 1990/91 to 2016/17 was derived from the CSC Offender Management System. The historical database was used to develop alternative and provisional scenarios for men and women up to 2022. Projections for men and women were estimated separately, as historical trends for these two groups differ significantly. SAS/ETS software was used for exploring and analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As in previous population projection exercises, estimates are taken to the last Tuesday midnight community supervision count of the fiscal year. At fiscal year-end 2000-2001, the national actual community supervision population was 8,348 (7,857 men and 491 women). By 2016/17 the actual population count had increased to 8,868 (8,217 men and 651 women). This represents a 16-year growth of 520 (360 men and 160 women) on this side of millennium.
A review of the actual and projected population figure below reveals some important information about the federal community supervision population. Most notable is the steady rise of the community supervision population since 2012/13 climbing to a historical peak in 2016/17 of 8,868. Both federal men and women under community supervision have increased over the last four years (men from 7,148 to 8,217 and women have continued to climb (from 480 to 651). Finally, at this time and assuming things will remain constant, it is estimated that the federal community supervision population will continue to growth.
Figure: Federal Community Actual and Projected
What it means
Presently, it appears that increased discretionary release (more day paroles) and improved reintegration outcomes (fewer revocations) are having an impact on the size of the federal community supervision population.
For more information
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Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong
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